By Kate Plummer Newsweek World
Mark Carney's chances of winning Canada's election against Pierre Poilievre have declined, according to new betting odds.
Why It Matters
Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, won a leadership election in March and called a snap election nine days after taking office. His predecessor, Justin Trudeau, had announced in January that he was resigning as Canada's prime minister.
Since returning to office, U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed a 25 percent tariff on Canadian imports and a 10 percent duty on Canadian energy imports, escalating concerns about a trade war between the two countries. He has also threatened to annex the U.S.'s northern neighbor.
The Liberal Party saw its polling surge amid Trump's tariff policies, and it was expected that Carney would comfortably win the election. The new odds challenge this narrative.
In Canada, votes are not cast for the prime minister directly. Instead, the leader of the party that wins the most seats traditionally becomes the head of government.
What To Know
According to prediction market Polymarket, Carney has a 77.6 percent chance of becoming the next prime minister of Canada, while Poilievre has a 22.4 percent chance.
Last week, the market found that Carney had an 80.5 percent chance of remaining prime minister after the election, while Poilievre had a 19.6 percent chance of assuming the role.
Meanwhile, a Sunday poll by Abacus Data found that the Liberals received 41 percent of the vote, compared to 39 percent for the Conservatives. On April 21, the polling company reported that the Liberals had a five-point lead. But the new, narrower lead would still be enough for the Liberals to form government, the pollsters said.
What People Are Saying
Speaking at a Friday rally, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said: "President Trump is trying to break us so that America could own us."
Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, said: "The Liberal government has weakened our economy with anti-energy laws, red tape and high taxes that have driven $500 billion out of our country into the United States...That weakness threatens our ability to stand up for ourselves."
Tom Urbaniak, a professor of political science and director of the Tompkins Institute at Cape Breton University, previously told Newsweek: "I am not expecting a Liberal landslide, but a Liberal majority of seats is possible. I am not anticipating the Liberals getting more than 200 seats (out of 343). If the Liberals win a plurality of seats, but not a majority, they will form government and will likely lean on the Bloc Québécois to retain the confidence of the House of Commons-although it would be hard to imagine such an arrangement lasting as long as four years."
David Coletto, founder of Abacus, said, as quoted by The Telegraph: "Canadians see Mr Carney as the problem solver in choppy seas, while Mr Poilievre is viewed as the change agent better with a hammer, an image that helps but hasn't yet proven decisive."
What Happens Next
Voters in Canada will cast their ballots on Monday, and preliminary results are expected to come in late Monday night or early Tuesday morning local time.
The leader of the largest party forms a government, but if no party ends up with an overall majority, a minority government is formed, and the party with the most seats works with other parties to pass legislation.
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This story was originally published April 28, 2025 at 9:55 AM.
